A pain in the gut
This week in terms of training has been very ez. I took Tuesday and Sunday off. Everything else was either a 20-30 minute jog or a 30-40 minute ride on the bike. It is a bit too early to take off the hard workouts, but my stomach/side have been hurting. This is all a result of my layout poach d in which I collided with the offensive dude. It kind of hurt then. And it still kind of hurts, although it hurts less this Monday than it did last Monday. I do not think it that serious as I landed on them later in the game for a called back score and felt ok.
Initially, I thought it was a rib injury, but the pain is no longer on my left ribs (the initial source of pain and where I was hit). The pain now most of the time feels like a bad muscle strain in the top/center of my stomach or on the right side of my ribs. My quick look on the internet gave some stretches and of course the morning starts with some ibuprofen.
It sucks to not feel completely 100% this close to regionals. Especially, with this being the first time in a long time that I do not feel 100% guaranteed of going to nationals. But really can you be 100% at this point in the season? In 05, I was much less than 100% and that worked out ok.
As far as seeding, first for the open, it seems fair to put Furious 4, but I would think there would be a bit more support for putting them 3rd. Yes, they did not have a good 07 season, but there is a bit of precedence with them not doing that well during the preseason and then turning it on for regionals and nationals. Although if you are for Jam/Revolver, you want Furious as the 4 that way they play Sockeye and the Bay area guys fight it out for a spot to go to nationals. And if I were Jam, I would rather play Revolver (And vice versea) in October then Fur ious. [That sounds quite arrogant of me, please note I am like 3-50 against the 4 of the teams I am talking about]. Based on 07, Furious should be 4. But it is not like the summer tourneys count for anything. This is not other sports were the non-playoffs count for qualification purposes. Everything before sectionals, really means nothing and is just for the improvement of your team. I think 06 results should definitely count for something. I would put Furious 2... Bold statement for someone with no clue/no investment/no voice in the division, I know. If you had to bet on 1 team in the NW open who would it be, Sockeye or Furious? Jam or Revolver would probably not be one of them. But all 4 will get to nationals and all 4 should, so it does not really matter how they get there/what place. And all 4 have an excellent shot of at least quarterfinals.
It does not seem much like any other open regional will be that big of problem for seeding.
For our division a week later and in a different local, Shazam 1, Brass 2, Mischief 3. We are probably 4. ALthough we lost to CTR in Portland, so they could 4. By my logic above, you could argue Portland ahead of us as well. I don't know about the #4 team out of the Norcal section, but there is probably an argument about them. BUT, if you just take the 07 season, we could argue for 3rd since we beat Mischief in Seattle. Now, I am not saying we should be above Mischief, I am just saying there could be an argument for us based on 07 results (although they did finish 2nd and we finished 6th, let's not let facts get in the way).
It would seem logical for us to be 4, maybe 5 considering the CTR thing. I don't think Portland has much of argument to be seeded over us. Although they beat CTR at Labor Day, so we are 0-1 v. CTR and 1-0 v. Horde, and they are 1-1 v. each other. Throw in the whole quarter final thing for Portland, that puts them 4/5 w/ CTR. Hmmm, maybe Portland is 4/5 then. And we are 6. With Salt Lake 7. Night Train 8, maybe.
Oh wait, we went to the prequarters last year, take that CTR. So does that vault us to 4/5. I don't know. Anyone care about coed out there?
So yeah, we are seeded anywhere from 3-6. 4 bids to nationals. Should be fun.
Initially, I thought it was a rib injury, but the pain is no longer on my left ribs (the initial source of pain and where I was hit). The pain now most of the time feels like a bad muscle strain in the top/center of my stomach or on the right side of my ribs. My quick look on the internet gave some stretches and of course the morning starts with some ibuprofen.
It sucks to not feel completely 100% this close to regionals. Especially, with this being the first time in a long time that I do not feel 100% guaranteed of going to nationals. But really can you be 100% at this point in the season? In 05, I was much less than 100% and that worked out ok.
As far as seeding, first for the open, it seems fair to put Furious 4, but I would think there would be a bit more support for putting them 3rd. Yes, they did not have a good 07 season, but there is a bit of precedence with them not doing that well during the preseason and then turning it on for regionals and nationals. Although if you are for Jam/Revolver, you want Furious as the 4 that way they play Sockeye and the Bay area guys fight it out for a spot to go to nationals. And if I were Jam, I would rather play Revolver (And vice versea) in October then Fur ious. [That sounds quite arrogant of me, please note I am like 3-50 against the 4 of the teams I am talking about]. Based on 07, Furious should be 4. But it is not like the summer tourneys count for anything. This is not other sports were the non-playoffs count for qualification purposes. Everything before sectionals, really means nothing and is just for the improvement of your team. I think 06 results should definitely count for something. I would put Furious 2... Bold statement for someone with no clue/no investment/no voice in the division, I know. If you had to bet on 1 team in the NW open who would it be, Sockeye or Furious? Jam or Revolver would probably not be one of them. But all 4 will get to nationals and all 4 should, so it does not really matter how they get there/what place. And all 4 have an excellent shot of at least quarterfinals.
It does not seem much like any other open regional will be that big of problem for seeding.
For our division a week later and in a different local, Shazam 1, Brass 2, Mischief 3. We are probably 4. ALthough we lost to CTR in Portland, so they could 4. By my logic above, you could argue Portland ahead of us as well. I don't know about the #4 team out of the Norcal section, but there is probably an argument about them. BUT, if you just take the 07 season, we could argue for 3rd since we beat Mischief in Seattle. Now, I am not saying we should be above Mischief, I am just saying there could be an argument for us based on 07 results (although they did finish 2nd and we finished 6th, let's not let facts get in the way).
It would seem logical for us to be 4, maybe 5 considering the CTR thing. I don't think Portland has much of argument to be seeded over us. Although they beat CTR at Labor Day, so we are 0-1 v. CTR and 1-0 v. Horde, and they are 1-1 v. each other. Throw in the whole quarter final thing for Portland, that puts them 4/5 w/ CTR. Hmmm, maybe Portland is 4/5 then. And we are 6. With Salt Lake 7. Night Train 8, maybe.
Oh wait, we went to the prequarters last year, take that CTR. So does that vault us to 4/5. I don't know. Anyone care about coed out there?
So yeah, we are seeded anywhere from 3-6. 4 bids to nationals. Should be fun.
posted by sometallskinnykid at 7:49 AM
7 Comments:
[That sounds quite arrogant of me, please note I am like 3-50 against the 4 of the teams I am talking about].
That can't possibly be true. What are the three times you won?
ObSeedingComment: Head-to-head should be only one factor. The whole body of work (even if you limit it to 2007) should be considered. And even for head-to-head, I would still place more emphasis on finish at common tournaments than head-to-head results at such tournaments, especially given the tendency to "elite"-only tournaments where everyone loses at least once or twice.
twice at ecc in 01, beat FG + Sockeye
and we beat kaos/revolver at CC in 05
I think that is it for those 4 out of the Northwest.
We have beaten dog 3 times though, 01 nats, 03 boston, 04 chicago, maybe 03 chicago as well? So maybe 4 times.
And yeah, tourney performance should matter more. ALthough we beat Mischief at ecc, they did get to the finals. So they should be the 3 seed. But I just wanted to make a point that the argument could be made...
Tim
I'm of the opinion that seedings should be a reward for the season up to that point, not an attempt at predicting the outcome. If Furious is good enough to win ECC or Solstice or Labor Day and didn't, they have to live with that come seeding time. But since (I'm assuming) their young guys got a lot of PT, they may be better poised to step up than lower players on other teams that sacrificed player development for results.
I don't think that the perfect seedings are ones that necessarily translate into a tournament that goes to seed.
Also, I might have a tiny tiny bit of inherent Revolver bias.
Tim,
People care about Mixed, you just can't bury the lead under a bunch of boring open stuff that you know nothing about anyway.
In any case, you're right that the seeding for NW Mixed is a bit of a clusterf*&k, especially in the 4-9 spots. Lots of parity and results w/less than full squads. The score reporter matrix - http://upa.org/scores/scores.cgi?div=127&page=3&tourn=3829 - is interesting, but doesn't really provide that much help.
FWIW here's how I would seed:
1. Shazam (WABC1)
2. Monkey (NC1)
3. Mischief (NC2) (0-1 vs. flycoons, but as you said higher finish at this tournament, and 2-1 vs. monkey)
------- CUTOFF ------
4. Flycoons (BS1) (0-1 vs. CTR but wins over others including Mischief, Goldenspike and The Horde)
5. CTR (NC3) lost to Goldenspike but beat Flycoons
6. Goldenspike (BS2)(wins over NC1&3, but lost to NC2&4 - this seems about right)
------- CUTOFF --------
7. Night Train (NC4)
8. Family Style (NC5) 1-0 vs. The Horde
9. The Horde (OR1) 0-1 vs. FS, but have 1-1 vs. CTR, could switch 8/9
------- CUTOFF -------
10-16. ???
DanO
Mischief #12
Dano-
Looks pretty good, I would think Horde probably jumps up to 7, 1-1 v. CTR should stand for something. And their win was at a "bigger" tourney. Plus, they were a quarterfinalist last year.
Pulse - you are probably right. It is just it seems strange to put Furious that low (and seedings probably should not be based on what seems strange). And you will never hear Furious complain about seeding, especially when they get stuck on the same side as sockeye, since that is the best rivalry we have in fall ultimate. No way would they complain about seedings and give Sockeye some sort of mental edge. Especially, when I am sure Furious thinks they will definitely win the game.
Having the 2 finalist in the same side at natties is weird. That is all.
Tim (& DanO & others that care about Mixed),
Another argument for putting Flycoons at 4 and CTR at 5: Flycoons have a better Record Against Common Opponents (RACO) than CTR: y'all are 5-2 vs. CTR's 4-9. Boo-yah.
Nighttrain is 3-2 vs. CTR...but I think you can argue The Horde into 7th based on '06, and the fact that they won their Sectionals, and NT placed 4th at theirs.
Finally, an argument for seeding Furious at 3 and not 4...maybe Furious doesn't deserve the "reward" of a 3-seed given their '07 season, but do you want to "punish" Sockeye by placing them at 4? Other teams have to live with the seeding of Furious.
Best of luck to you West-Coasters!
-Kendra
Slow White #18
Or not:
[If you had to bet on 1 team in the NW open who would it be, Sockeye or Furious? Jam or Revolver would probably not be one of them. But all 4 will get to nationals and all 4 should, so it does not really matter how they get there/what place.]
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